1. Development of spatio-temporal models and associated statistical methods to enable forward projections of the geographical distribution of prevalence, and hence the risk of resurgence, by combining model-based geostatistical analysis with mechanistic predictive modelling of disease transmission dynamics, using the most recent available data on disease prevalence and environmental risk-factors.
2. To use the results from aim 1 to derive statistically efficient and affordable designs for networks of sentinel sites to enable continued monitoring of prevalence in areas at high risk of resurgence."
Can geospatial algorithms be used by disease programs to help identify hotspots at community and Implementation Unit level?
Collaborative effort to address intestinal worms through education, medical care, health assessments, quizzes/contests in school
The effectiveness of motivating locals to address intestinal worms through education, medical care and health assessments.
Mapping the Potential Risk of Mycetoma Infection in Sudan and South Sudan Using Ecological Niche Modeling
What is the potential distribution of mycetoma in Sudan and South Sudan? What are the most important factors associated with the spatial distriutional patterns of disease cases in Both countries.
To assess the programmatic feasibility of and determine the most appropriate age group and sample strategy for an onchocerciasis mapping survey for ivermectin-naïve areas.
Through funding from the Wellcome Trust to develop a global atlas of podoconiosis. We aim to advance new knowledge on the geographical distribution and spatial epidemiology of the disease.
i. Conduct national cross-sectional surveys in selected countries to validate the environmental predictive model developed using the mapping data in Ethiopia.
ii. Create evidence consensus maps, develop risk maps and ground-truthing work and delineate the spatial distribution and geographical limits of podoconiosis globally.
iii. Estimate the global burden of podoconiosis by quantifying the number affected, the population at risk and DALYs attributable.
iv. Estimate how much it will cost to control or eliminate podoconiosis globally.
Can routine reports be used to identify hot spots of scabies transmission?
Our proposal will study the interaction between humans, livestock and wildlife and the role of this transition zone in the transmission of trypanosomes at the edge of the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania. To assess whether focussed control of tsetse is effective, we will develop mathematical models of the transmission of trypanosomes in the transition zone from wildlife-dominated areas on the park boundaries through to livestock-dominated areas outside the parks. The models will enable us to predict the likely extent, duration and cost of interventions required to interrupt the transmission of trypanosomes at boundary areas.
Assessing treatment needs for school-aged children and assisting Ministry of Health to develop an effective control programme
Understanding the basic pharmacology of praziquantel tailored to paediatric setting and developing a treatment access plan for this age class