Lancaster University

Efficient post-elimination surveillance strategies for NTDs

1. Development of spatio-temporal models and associated statistical methods to enable forward projections of the geographical distribution of prevalence, and hence the risk of resurgence, by combining model-based geostatistical analysis with mechanistic predictive modelling of disease transmission dynamics, using the most recent available data on disease prevalence and environmental risk-factors.

2. To use the results from aim 1 to derive statistically efficient and affordable designs for networks of sentinel sites to enable continued monitoring of prevalence in areas at high risk of resurgence."

Using Geostatistical Tools to Develop a Stop MDA Survey for LF Triple Drug Therapy

Can geostatistical tools be used to develop a stop IDA strategy for LF that can measure <1% Mf prevalence in adults?