Country operational research priorities pending.
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
1. Development of spatio-temporal models and associated statistical methods to enable forward projections of the geographical distribution of prevalence, and hence the risk of resurgence, by combining model-based geostatistical analysis with mechanistic predictive modelling of disease transmission dynamics, using the most recent available data on disease prevalence and environmental risk-factors.
2. To use the results from aim 1 to derive statistically efficient and affordable designs for networks of sentinel sites to enable continued monitoring of prevalence in areas at high risk of resurgence."
Can geostatistical tools be used to develop a stop IDA strategy for LF that can measure <1% Mf prevalence in adults?
The purpose of this project is to create maps that utilize LF risk and prevalence data to predict risk of recrudescence, and to stratify this risk into 3-4 distinct groups. Such maps could subsequently be used to design and simulate the performance of different surveillance strategies.
Preliminary study findings:
The intensity of transmission was quantified by the basic reproductive number (R0).
A map of predicted prevalence of microfilaraemia, developed through Bayesian geostatistical modelling, was linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis.
The models predict a marked geographical heterogeneity in the intensity of lymphatic filariasis transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Further control efforts may be required in areas of higher intensity of transmission.
Conversely, interruption of transmission might be achieved earlier in areas of low intensity of transmission.
The results suggest that intensity of transmission at baseline (R0) and bednet use are the best indicators for the level of surveillance required sub-nationally post-MDA.