Modeling

• To define a cost-effective and accurate method to map ivermectin-naïve districts for Onchocerciasis, Lymphatic Filariasis and Loiasis and identify districts eligible for safe treatment with ivermectin MDA.
• To validate a statistical model of Loiasis prevalence and intensity by comparing the model results to data from a prevalence assessment.

To develop models that can predict MF prevalence after a given number of rounds of MDA as a tool to identify program settings in which the response to MDA is less than predicted. 

Complete mapping of NTDs in Angola. Support transitioning of new diagnostics tools into program use.

Complete mapping of NTDs in South Sudan. Support transitioning of new diagnostics tools into program use.

Complete mapping of NTDs in Central African Republic. Support transitioning of new diagnostics tools into program use.

The purpose of this project is to create maps that utilize LF risk and prevalence data to predict risk of recrudescence, and to stratify this risk into 3-4 distinct groups. Such maps could subsequently be used to design and simulate the performance of different surveillance strategies. 

Preliminary study findings:

• The intensity of transmission was quantified by the basic reproductive number (R0).

• A map of predicted prevalence of microfilaraemia, developed through Bayesian geostatistical modelling, was linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis.

• The models predict a marked geographical heterogeneity in the intensity of lymphatic filariasis transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Further control efforts may be required in areas of higher intensity of transmission.

• Conversely, interruption of transmission might be achieved earlier in areas of low intensity of transmission.

• The results suggest that intensity of transmission at baseline (R0) and bednet use are the best indicators for the level of surveillance required sub-nationally post-MDA.

Complete mapping of NTDs in AFRO. Support transitioning of new diagnostics tools into program use.

Complete mapping of NTDs in Madagascar. Support transitioning of new diagnostics tools into program use.

Complete mapping of NTDs in Liberia. Support transitioning of new diagnostics tools into program use.

Complete mapping of NTDs in Botswana. Support transitioning of new diagnostics tools into program use.